Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 102

(Between the Frank Mir fight and “Stop! Or My Mom Will Shoot,” I’d say some apologies are in order. I’ll let you gentlemen decide who would like to go first.)

Gambling ain’t what it used to be in the city of Portland.  The dogs don’t run at the old Multnomah Greyhound Track anymore, so you’ll have to find somewhere else to get stabbed with a pocketknife.  The Oregon lottery just doesn’t give you that sweet, out-of-control feeling you crave.  Even the place where I used to go and watch the occasional cockfight has closed its doors.  Thankfully, UFC 102 is coming down this weekend and bringing plenty of action with it.  Let’s take a look, shall we?

Betting lines come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150) vs. Randy Couture (-160)
Keith Jardine (-140) vs. Thiago Silva (+130)
Demian Maia (+157) vs. Nate Marquardt (-160)
Brandon Vera (-190) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (+175)
Chris Leben (-135) vs. Jake Rosholt (+125)
Chris Tuchscherer (+301) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-345)
Justin McCully (+249) vs. Mike Russow (-260)
Tim Hague (+145) vs. Tom Duffee (-150)
Ed Herman (-130) vs. Aaron Simpson (+119)
Mark Munoz (-200) vs. Nick Catone (+190)
Evan Dunham (+120) vs. Marcus Aurelio (-140)

The breakdown…

– There’s every reason in the world to like Couture at these odds.  He’s older, but has held up much better than Nogueira throughout his career.  His wrestling ability will enable him to take the fight wherever he wants, whether standing, in the clinch, or on the ground.  Of course it’s always a risk to play around in Big Nog’s guard, but Couture is a savvy veteran and he isn’t likely to just toss his arm out there for the taking.

The only thing I worry about with Couture right now is distraction.  He’s been going through a divorce and he’s coming back home to Portland to fight in front of friends and family.  That means his cell phone is blowing up with requests for tickets and all other manner of nonsense, and there are plenty of ways for a fighter to get thrown off his mental game when you combine that with an angry ex-wife and an impending settlement.  The good news is, there may be no one in MMA who is mentally tougher than Couture.  And let’s be honest, he’s been through this divorce business a time or two before.  Put me down for a twenty spot on Captain America.

– K-Sos looks tempting as +175 dog against a fighter in Brandon Vera who hasn’t done really well against quality competition in years.  But God help me, I’m tempted to believe Vera when he says he’s born again hard.  For easier, though less profitable underdog pickings on the main card, I’m taking Jake Rosholt over Chris Leben.  Leben’s had a long layoff and he’s coming back to a bad style match-up in his hometown.  Facing a great wrestler who can take a punch is a recipe for disaster for a brawler like Leben.  Put me down for, oh, I don’t know, fifteen bucks on Rosholt.

– Let’s talk undercard underdogs: Tuchscherer and McCully are dog food, so forget about them.  Catone is probably in over his head as well, so that leaves Hague, Simpson, and Dunham.  Of those, I like Hague’s chances the best.  Duffee has a good record, though mostly against nobodies.  It’s his first UFC fight, which means he’ll be as nervous as a Mormon dad on prom night.  Hague showed some resiliency against Pat Barry, and I’m betting a cool ten bucks that he’ll deliver here.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Mike Russow.  The UFC knows what they have in this guy, which is why they’re giving him an easy one against McCully first.  Gonna be a quick one.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Couture + Marquardt + Gonzaga + Russow + Munoz.  That’s all you need to know.