Gambling Addiction Enabler: Strikeforce – Carano vs. Cyborg

(The temptation to suggest a tickle fight for the belt must have been damn near overwhelming for Scott Coker.)

As Strikeforce bravely soldiers on toward what was supposed to be an epic event on Showtime before being brought back down to earth via a gypsy curse, it’s time we take a look at the fights oddsmakers are still offering betting lines on.  With Jesse Taylor in as a replacement for Nick Diaz against Jay Hieron, most online bookmakers are staying away from it at the moment.  Either they feel poet laureate “JT Money” is too much of an unknown quantity as a last-minute replacement, or they just assume that Nick Diaz will show up on fight night, stoned out of his mind, and refuse to allow this fight to go on without him.  We’re hoping for the latter.

The most favorable lines on the internet come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Gina Carano (+161) vs. Cris “Cyborg” Santos (-170)
Renato “Babalu” Sobral (+200) vs. Gegard Mousasi (-205)
Mitsuhiro Ishida (+200) vs. Gilbert Melendez (-215)
Mike Kyle (+435) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-515)

The breakdown…

– When you think about it, -170 is a pretty good line on Cyborg.  Some places have her as high as -200, and you have to think that some ardent Carano-lovers are probably betting with their hearts/loins and bringing the line down.

Look, if this were a beauty contest we know who would win, just like we know who would be hired to work security.  But this is a fight.  Carano’s greatest strength is her stand-up, which is exactly where Santos wants this fight.  If it becomes a kickboxing match, Carano has to rely on being the better technician or else she’ll get steamrolled by Cyborg’s superior power.  And honestly?  Nothing we’ve seen so far from Carano makes us think that she’s quite that slick.  Cyborg takes this via late TKO.

– You have to expect Mousasi to be the favorite because of what he’s accomplished so far, but if you look into who he’s beat and how there’s some cause for concern.  Lately he’s been submitting the strikers and outstriking the grapplers.  Sobral can do a little of both, though he’d much rather have this on the mat if he can get it there.  That’s where he’s going to run into problems.  “Babalu” has never been known for his unavoidable takedowns, which means Mousasi will likely get to dictate the pace in this one.  If that happens, it’s trouble for Sobral.  Mousasi via TKO.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Fabricio Werdum.  Not only is he a much better fighter than Mike Kyle in all respects, but if you bet on Kyle and actually win, even though it will net you a nice payoff, you’re still going to feel like one of those dudes who did business with the Nazis.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Santos + Mousasi + Melendez + Werdum.  That should pretty much cover it.